Daily Science Dose

It finally happened. A reputable scientist from a top organization has put it out there, and it was a team of scientists from probably the top organization in the US for this kind of work.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a team of scientists that just published a new study basically saying that once carbon levels reach a certain peak, there will be some dire consequences. Ok, got that. But the problem is that once a peak is reached, say 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmospehere (we are currently at 385 ppm), there will be no going back. Alright, “no going back” is a bit extreme, but what I mean is that once a certain threshold is crossed, and we most likely have already passed one of those thresholds, certain permanent* changes will be inevitable whether or not we cut all carbon emissions once past certain thresholds.

*Please be aware that nothing on this planet is permanent. I use this word to explain certain long-long-term weather and climate patterns that will change and become seemingly “permanent.”

The study looks at certain thresholds for carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere: 450, 600, and even up to 1000 ppm. The research finds that once a threshold is reached and certain climatic changes are taking place, it would be more than one thousand years before any drastic cuts in carbon emissions would mitigate the situation.

“Our study convinced us that current choices regarding carbon dioxide emissions will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet,” said [Susan]Solomon [NOAA senior scientist], who is based at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

“It has long been known that some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years,” Solomon said. “But the new study advances the understanding of how this affects the climate system.”

The study examines the consequences of allowing CO2 to build up to several different peak levels beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts per million and then completely halting the emissions after the peak.

The authors found that the scientific evidence is strong enough to quantify some irreversible climate impacts, including rainfall changes in certain key regions, and global sea level rise.

If CO2 is allowed to peak at 450-600 parts per million, the results would include persistent decreases in dry-season rainfall that are comparable to the 1930s North American Dust Bowl in zones including southern Europe, northern Africa, southwestern North America, southern Africa and western Australia.

The study notes that decreases in rainfall that last not just for a few decades but over centuries are expected to have a range of impacts that differ by region. Such regional impacts include decreasing human water supplies, increased fire frequency, ecosystem change and expanded deserts. — SPX via TerraDaily

Not all the peaks showed dire climatic changes, but they all showed substantial climate changes, and the length of those changes were made longer by the heat-transfer of the ocean, which is standard physics and cannot be stopped. In fact, a big problem that this study exposes is that warmer water takes up more space, simple by the physics of the water molecules. Heat them and they expand. Water will expand.

And if water is going to expand due to higher temperatures, then water levels will rise, whether or not glaciers and ice caps melt. The NOAA team found that base water rise, from just the expansion of the ocean water itself, will account for up to 3 feet in sea level rise.

So, in closing, this new study says, we are screwed.

carbon dioxide, study, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, water, sea levels, climate change, global warming, melt, climate , climate patterns